The European Union’s share of global beef, pork, and poultry exports will fall to 15% next year, down from 20% in 2019, projects the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to the report, the decline during this period has paved the way for Brazil’s growth. The country is expected to increase its share to 26% in 2024 (in 2019, it was 20%). US meat exports should remain stable at 22%.
USDA also shared its estimates for the exports of each protein. It predicts a 1% increase in beef trade in 2024, to 11.9 million tons. This will be driven by higher exports from Brazil, Australia, and Argentina — offsetting declines in the US, Canada, and EU. Other South American countries, such as Paraguay and Uruguay, will also register gains.
“Brazil and Australia will capture increased market share, particularly in those countries such as the United States where beef production is expected to decline,” says the report. “Although China demand is forecast to wane in 2024, global demand will be supported by small gains by several markets.”
Pork exports, in turn, are expected to grow by 2% next year, to 10.4 million tons, driven by Brazil’s external sales. The country is expected to continue to gain market share from EU and US pork products, particularly in Japan, and Mexico.
Global chicken meat shipments grow by 3% in 2024, reaching a record 14 million tons, says the USDA. “Despite a slowing global economy which stymies robust consumption growth, chicken demand will remain firm as consumers in many countries seek relatively lower-cost animal protein.”
The report states Brazil should capture much of the gain due to its price competitiveness and extensive market access compared to most other major exporters.