After four years of global growth, animal protein production is expected to expand at a moderate pace or even see a reduction among some species in 2024, according to Rabobank. The shift comes as producers and processors navigate tighter margins due to structural changes to market conditions.
Higher production costs and tighter supplies will push animal protein prices up and constrain global consumption in 2024.
Rabobank analysts forecast marginal year-on-year production growth in the major markets of North America, Brazil, Europe, Oceania, China and Southeast Asia, of 0.6 million tonnes (or 0.5%) to a total of 247 million tons next year. This is against a 2.1 million tons (1%) growth in 2023.
Poultry and aquaculture will be the only two protein groups to see global production growth in 2024, according to Rabobank, although the growth will be slower than in 2023. Beef production will continue to decline, as seen in 2023, following changes in cattle cycles in North America, while pork production will also see a modest reduction.
Regionally, Brazil and Southeast Asia will register the fastest growth in poultry and meat production, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook. In Brazil, production will grow among all species, led by pork and poultry, although the increase will be slower when compared to 2023 levels.
In Australia, increasing livestock numbers and the expectation of dry conditions in the year ahead will see production continue to rise. With the contraction in North American production, the country’s beef exports are expected to become more competitive in markets like Japan, South Korea, and China.
Meanwhile, China will see marginal growth, with poultry in a better position and pork and beef under pressure. Europe and North America are expected to register an overall contraction in production.
Costs
Production costs and inflation are expected to fall but will remain at a higher level than before the pandemic. There are also signs that consumers are getting used to higher prices and, in some markets, are willing to pay a premium for quality, according to Rabobank.
“For companies to sustain the success of recent years, it is essential that they adapt to structural market changes. Instead of simply weathering the storm, animal protein companies need to assess their strengths and prepare to transition their supply chains to operate in an environment with high costs and tight margins,” recommended Justin Sherrard, Rabobank’s global animal protein strategist.