After predicting in January that Brazilian poultry exports would reach 4.925 million tons in 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised these projections upward in a new report published this month. The agency now estimates that Brazilian shipments will total 4.975 million tons for the year – which, if confirmed, will represent a 4.36% increase over 2023.
The projection does not include exports of chicken feet/paws, and therefore, official Brazilian figures tend to be higher than those indicated by the USDA. Taking into account the history of projections, it can be estimated that total exports will reach 5.2 million tons.
Shipments are expected to continue focusing on the halal market, according to the agency. “The Brazilian government is working to open new markets, increase product diversity in existing markets, and negotiate regionalization clauses for its current sanitary certificates, to prevent market closures in case highly pathogenic avian influenza reaches a commercial operation,” said the USDA attaché in Brasília.
The report forecasts a 1.34% increase in Brazilian chicken meat production. As the world’s second-largest producer after the United States, the country is expected to produce 15.1 million tons of this protein in 2024.
Since exports are expected to increase by more than 4%, the final result will be a decrease in the internal availability of the product.
At the same time, total consumption of chicken meat in Brazil in 2024 is expected to remain practically stable at 10.13 million tons, while the consumption of other animal proteins is expected to increase, according to the USDA. Per capita consumption is expected to remain at 46 kg, the same number as in 2023.