The first reduction in global beef supply since the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to occur in 2025, according to Rabobank’s latest report. This will be driven by herd contractions in the four largest producing countries, altering trade flows throughout the new year.
The German bank estimates a 500,000-ton decline in supply in 2025, a 1% drop compared to the previous year. Brazil and the United States are expected to lead the reduction, while lower production is also anticipated in China, Europe, and New Zealand.
Australia may be the only country among the top 10 beef producers to see gains in 2025, according to Rabobank.
The report notes that cattle prices in North America have remained high over the past two years, due to reduced supply and steady consumer demand. In other regions, such as South America and Oceania, prices remained lower during this period.
This trend is now beginning to reverse, as tighter global beef supply supports prices in South American countries, Australia, and New Zealand.
The decline in production is also expected to generate changes in global beef trade. Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch, notes that Australian producers are likely to increase their focus on export markets to accommodate rising domestic production.
Meanwhile, Brazil, facing weak domestic demand, is expected to prioritize international markets as a growth strategy.