The global landscape for pork exports is undergoing changes due to shifts in consumption patterns in China (the second-largest importer of the protein) and rising tensions between China and the European Union, prompting producing nations to diversify their external sales.
According to a recent report from RaboResearch, the Chinese market is gradually moving away from pork – traditionally the dominant choice – toward poultry, beef, and seafood, which are favored for their perceived health benefits.
The report suggests that exporters need to consider changes in the types of products offered to meet the needs of consumers in China, which is the largest consumer of pork globally.
“Thus, producers are advised to focus on a consumer-centric approach rather than providing universal products in large volumes when supplying the Chinese market,” the document states.
Opportunities for pork exports to the country, however, remain available, with RaboResearch data indicating that per capita meat consumption in China has doubled over the past 30 years, reaching 72 kg in 2023.
Trade Tensions
The increasing trade tensions between China and the European Union are also contributing to a potential reshaping of the global pork export map. In June, the Asian country announced an anti-dumping investigation into pork imports from the EU. The process, expected to last a year, was initiated after the bloc imposed anti-subsidy duties on electric vehicles manufactured in China.
This week, a new chapter in the dispute was announced by Beijing: an investigation into EU subsidies for dairy products exported to China.
According to Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank, a suspension of EU exports or the imposition of high tariffs by China could mean that global pork trade flows will be redirected—as China seeks new sources and EU exports shift to other regions.
“Meanwhile, other exporting countries may see their traditional trading partners shift to cheaper EU pork products,” she notes.
New Markets
Together, global tensions and the change in Chinese consumer behavior are already driving movements among the major pork producers and exporters, who are seeking to diversify their destinations.
In Brazil, for example (currently the fourth-largest pork exporter), shipments to China dropped by 40.3% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The sector compensated for the decline in demand by diversifying sales to the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Chile, and Mexico.
Other countries, like Russia, are looking to gain market share in China in the face of a potential reduction in the EU’s presence. Russian producers aim to capture 10% of China’s pork import market in the coming years, starting from scratch.
Russia did not export pork to China until February, when Beijing authorized three Russian producers to sell pork in the Chinese import market, which is valued at USD 3.5 billion and dominated by EU producers with a 51% share.
As part of this scenario, according to Pan from Rabobank, some governments are investing in supporting improvements in domestic production to increase self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on imports.