Cattle slaughter in Brazil is expected to decrease by 1% in 2025, as the reversal of the current livestock cycle begins. The increased retention of animals, in turn, is expected to lead to a rise in prices. The estimates are from the Brazilian office of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and were published in a recent report.
Brazilian cattle slaughter is projected to fall to 47.5 million head in 2025, after a record 48 million head expected for 2024. The Brazilian cattle herd is forecast to decline by 3% in 2025, to 186.87 million head, compared to an estimated 192.57 million in 2024.
The USDA office in Brasília estimates that Brazilian beef production will reach 11.75 million tons (carcass equivalent) in 2025, after 11.85 million in 2024.
“In 2025, domestic consumption is expected to decrease, as producers will prioritize exports due to strong external demand, the depreciation of the local currency, and challenges faced by foreign competitors,” according to the report.
Brazilian beef exports are expected to reach record volumes in 2024 and 2025.
Importance of beef in exports
The importance of beef in Brazil’s agribusiness exports has been growing in recent months. Among the countries responsible for the increase in volume are China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Egypt.
From January to July, the Brazilian industry exported 32% more beef than in the same period in 2023, although revenue in dollars increased by less (21%), according to data from Secex (Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat).
In the first half of 2024 (through July), compared to the same period in 2023, China increased its purchases of Brazilian beef by 13%, accounting for 49.8% of Brazil’s fresh beef exports this year. However, prices in dollars fell by 12%, according to Secex data.
Other important destinations include the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Secex indicates that these three countries purchased 13% of the fresh beef shipped by Brazil this year, an 83% increase compared to the same period in 2023.