Brazil’s beef production is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2024, reaching 10.2 million tons—the second-highest figure in the historical series, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). For 2025, the sector is projected to experience a 4.3% decline, with production dropping to 9.8 million tons, due to the livestock cycle turnaround, greater retention of females, and lower availability of cattle for slaughter.
According to Conab, slaughter rates have already increased by 18.7% from January to August 2024, compared to the same period last year. The expectation is that between 37 and 38 million head of cattle will be slaughtered this year.
Exports, which stood at 3 million tons in 2023 despite the temporary embargo by China due to the mad cow disease episode, have already increased by 28.1% through August this year. The forecast is that external sales will reach 3.6 million tons by the end of 2024, an increase of 17.8% compared to last year.
For 2025, Conab projects a stable scenario after robust growth this year, with a 2.5% increase in beef exports to 3.7 million tons.
Gabriel Rabello, manager of Fibers and Basic Foods at Conab, said that 2025 will mark the beginning of a livestock cycle reversal. “The price of calves has stopped falling and should soon start to rise. This will lead ranchers to retain females, reducing the availability of animals for slaughter,” Rabello explained during an online event hosted by Conab to present the outlook for the 2024/25 harvest.
For beef supply, Conab estimates that beef availability will increase to 32.7 kilos per capita in 2024, before dropping by 8.3% in 2025, to 30 kilos per capita.
Chicken
In the chicken meat market, Conab projects a 1.7% increase in production, reaching 15.2 million tons. For 2025, the company estimates a 2.1% increase, to 15.5 million tons.
Chicken meat exports are expected to rise by 1.9% in both 2024 and 2025, reaching 5.1 million tons this year and 5.2 million tons next year. From January to August, external sales saw a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the same period in 2023.
“With the rise in beef prices, chicken meat becomes a more affordable option,” Rabello said. The scenario of stable or low corn prices, the main component of poultry farmers’ cost structure, should favor increased poultry production.