In a scenario of intensifying international trade disputes, beef exports from Australia and Brazil to the United States posted strong results in March, with no apparent impact yet from the new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration.
Australia maintained a robust volume of 32,300 tons of beef exported to the U.S. in March, just 8% below February’s total and 21% above the same period last year. Although Australian traders reported some hesitation from U.S. buyers in the second half of March due to uncertainty around the new tariffs, the data did not show a significant decline.
In Brazil’s case, the results were even more striking. Brazil’s fresh beef exports to the U.S. reached the highest monthly volume on record in March 2025, totaling 36,900 tons—more than six times the volume exported in March 2024, when 5,600 tons were shipped. The U.S. was the second-largest destination for Brazilian beef last year, behind only China.
Experts project that only now, in April, the effects of the new U.S. tariffs will begin to be felt. Both Australia and Brazil were hit with a 10% tariff under the new wave of trade barriers announced by the U.S. Most Brazilian beef (the volume exceeding the duty-free quota) is already subject to a 26.4% tariff to enter the U.S. Even so, expectations are that the U.S. will remain heavily reliant on beef imports due to its shrinking cattle herd.
Opportunities in the Chinese market
According to analysts, one of the likely effects of the tariff war is market diversification by beef producers. If U.S. demand for imported meat declines due to reduced competitiveness from tariffed countries, exporters will seek alternative destinations for their products.
China is the third-largest buyer of U.S. beef, accounting for 10% of its imports, behind only South Korea and Japan. Amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S., China has suspended beef purchases from about 60% of its American suppliers (392 out of a total of 654 companies). The number of suspensions continues to grow and now includes pork and poultry suppliers as well.
In addition, in retaliation for the trade barriers imposed by Trump, China announced on Friday that it will raise tariffs on all U.S. imports to 125%, starting Saturday (April 12). Experts point out that the dispute between the two countries could indirectly benefit beef exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and New Zealand, creating opportunities to increase their shipments to the Chinese market.