The cattle herd in Australia has surpassed a cyclical peak after maintaining its maturity over the past 12 months, while the sheep herd, on the other hand, is expected to moderately decline after peaking in 2024. Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) has released its mid-year projections for the cattle and sheep industries.
“MLA’s industry projections are an important tool for the industry and the broader supply chain to understand the direction of the red meat sector over the next two years, including macro issues impacting the industry and providing a deeper understanding of the forecasted supply”, said Erin Lukey, MLA’s senior market information analyst.
Cattle
In 2024, Australia’s national herd is estimated to decrease by 1.4%, falling to 30.2 million head—a decline of just over 400,000 head, according to updated cattle industry projections. The northern herd is expected to stabilize in 2024 and 2025, as average rainy seasons continue to sustain a large and productive breeding herd, with an increasing number of cattle being exported to Southeast Asia.
Southern Australia will drive herd contraction during the forecast period, as strong overseas demand for beef supports higher slaughter rates in a now mature herd.
This decline indicates slight destocking, as noted in the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. The age profile of the herd continues to mature following the recovery from 2020 to 2023, as strong overseas demand encourages the slaughter of cattle ready for processing.
Adult cattle slaughter is expected to increase by 16% in 2024, reaching 8.2 million head—the highest number since 2019. Looking ahead, slaughter rates will remain relatively stable in 2025 and 2026, continuing from this high base.
Higher carcass weights will boost beef production in 2024, leading to record production in 2025, when output is expected to reach 2.55 million tons. International demand for beef remains strong, as supply dynamics abroad create opportunities in the global market.
“The U.S. cattle herd is likely to enter 2025 smaller than it was in 2024, a year when the herd hit its lowest point in 72 years,” Lukey said. “The current beef shortage in the U.S. will continue to drive demand for Australian beef globally, both in the U.S. as a direct substitute for domestic product, and in key export markets in North Asia, where Australia and the U.S. compete for market share.”
Sheep
In June 2024, the national sheep flock reached 79.1 million head, the highest number since 2007. This follows four consecutive years of recovery and expansion, accompanied by increasing slaughter and production numbers, which reached new records in 2023.
After this peak, the flock is expected to decrease in size. Looking ahead, the sheep population is projected to decline by 2.7% in 2025, to 76.9 million head, and by another 3.8%, to just over 74 million head in 2026. “This means that despite the projected contraction, the herd will not fall below the 10-year average of 70.3 million head,” Lukey said.