After two years of relatively stagnant trade, global chicken meat exports are expected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching a record 13.8 million tons. This estimate comes from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) in a report that highlights Brazil’s growing dominance in this market, at the expense of the US and the European Union. while forecasting record exports from Thailand.
According to the report, global economic performance will drive moderate consumption growth for the product, as chicken remains a lower-cost animal protein. In this scenario, all major exporters (namely Brazil, the United States, the EU, and Thailand) will register gains next year.
Brazil, however, will capture most of the expansion in shipments, as it is able to service and be price-competitive in the largest growth markets (Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom). Brazilian exports are expected to increase by 100,000 tons (2%) next year.
As a result, Brazil will maintain its market share at 36%, followed by the US (22%, one percentage point below the forecast for 2024), the EU (13%, stable), and Thailand (9%, an increase of 1 point).
The report states that there is no dominant factor for the growth of Brazilian exports at record levels in 2025. “Expansion is propelled by a combination of its disease-free status, export orientation and product offering, as well as competitive pricing. Many of these factors also support increased Thailand exports which are expected to reach record levels,” says the USDA.
Brazil and Thailand direct a greater portion of production to exports compared to the United States and the EU.
The rise in Thai exports will be supported by growth in cooked chicken, particularly to the EU, Japan, and the UK. In the EU, reductions in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related restrictions will support increased exports, with the UK remaining the main buyer of European products.
Beef
For beef, USDA projections indicate that global exports will remain stable in 2025, at 12.9 million tons. This is due to lower exports from Canada, the United States, and the EU, which will offset increased shipments from Argentina, Australia, and India. Excluding the United States, global exports are anticipated to increase 1%.
Brazil and Australia, the world’s two leading exporters, will capture increased market share at the expense of the United States and the EU, where beef production is expected to decline in 2025.
Australia exports are expected to rise 2% to a record 1.9 million tons, as tight US supplies and lower production will increase the demand for beef imports, of which the country is a significant supplier.
The report indicates that in 2025, the US will surpass the 2 million tons mark for imported beef for the first time.
Global demand in 2025 is also supported by a 1% increase in imports from China, as well as small gains from South Korea, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom.