Global trade is expected to register further growth this year, although the current scenario suggests challenges ahead, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Following a growth rate exceeding 3% in 2024, reaching a record USD 33 trillion in trade value, the sector is expected to benefit again in 2025 from moderate global inflation, stable economic growth, and improving business activity, according to the Global Trade Update report.
However, potential shifts in US trade policy under Donald Trump—towards a more protectionist stance—, nationalist industrial policies, the threat of new trade wars, and ongoing geopolitical tensions may negatively affect export and import prospects this year.
“New tariffs may not only target specific products but could be implemented more broadly [by the U.S. government]. Moreover, tariffs could affect geopolitical adversaries as well as key strategic trading partners, particularly those with higher tariffs and significant trade surpluses with the United States,” the report said.
“Even in the absence of actual tariff increases, the mere threat of tariffs and the possibility of retaliatory actions foster a less predictable global trade environment. This can negatively impact not only international trade but also investments and overall economic growth.”
The report also highlighted the prioritization of national interests and the urgency of fulfilling climate commitments, which are likely to continue shaping changes in industrial and trade policies in 2025.
The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer, which provides real-time insights into the trajectory of exports and imports, also indicates slower global trade growth in 2025.
According to the mechanism, a reading above 100 signals trade growth above the medium-term trend, while a reading below 100 indicates a contraction in exports and imports. In December, the index stood at 102.7, suggesting that trade will continue to expand at a moderate pace in the near term.
All sub-indices of the barometer remained at or above the trendline (100), except for the electronics components index (95.4), which stabilized below the baseline.
The export orders index (100.5) indicated stable trade growth in the short term, while the raw materials index (also 100.5) aligned with the trendline. Meanwhile, air freight (102.9), automotive products (104.0), and container shipping (105.8) indices were firmly above the trendline.